‘Globalization has been checked and trust in the US weakened’: a global agency view on tariffs

Keeping track is not easy. International trade, usually an area where any movement is as slow as the turning of a ship, has found the ultimate accelerant in the form of dealmaker-in-chief Donald Trump. Case in point: just last night, Trump announced a 90-day pause on all previously announced tariffs, except 125% on goods from China, either putting off or canceling a good deal of all of the measures the world has spent the last few weeks fretting. Unfortunately, quick analysis from many experts suggests that the damage is already done.

Amid all this chaos, any attempt to soberly sum up what tariffs apply where is outdated almost as soon as it is published. As one trade expert told The Drum a couple of weeks ago (that’s years in tariff-time), “There’s no consistency of what’s actually sticking or what dates they’re going to occur. What is constant is uncertainty.”

And uncertainty is not something brands or their marketers thrive on; per almost every expert The Drum has spoken with over three weeks of coverage, expect squeezed budgets in the second half of this year, regardless of what the next announcement out of the White House looks like. Just this week, the IAB found 60% of advertisers expecting 6-10% drops in budgets due to tariffs.

But the world is a big and variegated place. Impacts will be felt differently in different markets and for different kinds of providers. So here, in one place, is a choice selection of globally-significant marketers with their take on what’s going on today. Fair warning: it’s likely to change tomorrow.

India

Dheeraj Sinha, group CEO, FCB Group India & South Asia: “Although India isn’t in the eye of the hurricane, the tremors are certainly reaching it, particularly in industries that are export-oriented. The auto industry is already witnessing preliminary indications of cost-cutting, while the retail and electronics industries are shifting towards frugal, value-driven digital strategies that prioritize ROI and local salience rather than scale. But the market flourishes on duality. As export-facing advertisers tread with caution, domestic-oriented categories are availing themselves. There is a palpable movement toward embracing hyper-localized storytelling, regional media and a ‘proudly Indian’ brand voice as businesses shift their energies to where the action is – India itself. We’re also witnessing a shift toward greater agility and insight-driven creativity. As old models of campaigns come under attack, advertising is adapting – getting less wasteful, more efficient and more rooted in culture. The impact of tariffs may be indirect, but it’s fast-tracking the market away from mass toward micro; from global to local; and from scale-first to impact-driven.”

The UK

Sir Martin Sorrell, founder and executive chairman, S4 Capital: “Whatever results from President Trump’s tariff negotiations with at least 50 or so countries this week, the world changed on April 2, at 9pm in the Rose Garden. As a result, world GDP growth will slow and inflation will rise along with interest rates. Globalization has, at the very least, been checked and trust in the US has weakened. It’s a big opportunity for China to increase its influence through trade with the $60tn of GDP, excluding the $46tn represented by the USA and China. Clients will be much more selective on their expansion and investment markets; the Americas, Middle East and APAC will benefit. Slower growth in Europe and volatile Africa will be less attractive. Everywhere, but particularly in slower-growth Europe, clients will be focused on efficiency and effectiveness. AI, along with quantum computing, blockchain and the metaverse, will be the order of the day and this will be AI’s fomo moment. Clients will be focused on short-term results, which will drive further adoption of digital mid- and lower-funnel marketing. This will be the era of disruption, agility, clients taking back control and first party data.”

• More from Sir Martin on the great tariff fallout

Australia

Evan Davey, head of Australia & New Zealand & senior vice-president of growth for APAC, Dept: “While Australia sits somewhat on the sidelines of the tariff wars, we’re not immune to their effects. As global trade tensions escalate, particularly between the US and China, the Australian dollar continues to slide to levels unprecedented since the worst of Covid. This will drive up the cost of imported goods, placing inflationary pressure on businesses and consumers. This will likely result in tighter margins and a more cautious approach to marketing investment for local brands. Agencies must navigate delayed campaign decisions, a stronger focus on measurable ROI and increasing demand for cost-effective, high-impact creative. Messaging will likely shift towards value and local resilience, with a renewed emphasis on Australian-made products. While these changes pose challenges, they also present opportunities for agencies to step up strategically, helping clients stay agile, rethink their media mix, and show up meaningfully in a market that’s watching every dollar.”

Canada

Robert Thorsten, chief executive officer (CEO), Think Shift: “Times are uncertain. The work is redefining alliances and trade relationships. We yearn for consistency, but change is the only constant. In times of great uncertainty, the tendency is to be conservative, to hold money, to not invest, to retrench. This is classic Keynesian countercyclical theory in action. But for agencies, I think it’s the wrong approach. When others zig, we should zag. There is opportunity in change and great opportunity in great change. Those who seek it out will help to shape and drive the new reality. We help our clients take a broader view on their business and markets and, in so doing, help them enact plans to actualize their goals. As Warren Buffett said, ‘When others get greedy, I get nervous, and when others get nervous, I get greedy.’ Right now, others are nervous.”

Japan

Marc Wesseling, co-founder & CEO, UltraSuperNew: “The recent US tariffs on Japanese exports have definitely shaken things up and caused a great deal of chaos, but it’s not all doom and gloom. In fact, it’s opening up some interesting opportunities for Japanese brands, particularly across Asia. With a growing distaste for American products in certain markets, Japanese goods are gaining favor – increasingly seen as dependable, well-designed, and culturally closer to home. Brands here are leaning into that shift. Rather than scaling back, we are seeing our clients sticking to their campaign plans, with some talk around adjusting the angle and while some advertisers are keeping an eye on consumer sentiment, the general tone isn’t one of panic. Japanese brands are coming around to the fact that this is their chance to gain massive market share in Asia and to double down on their branding. So rather than chasing the US consumers, they are re-focusing their attention on their own backyard.”

The US

Sean Cassidy, CEO, DKC: “Tariffs are a communications landmine and businesses must have strategic messaging in place to maintain customer trust. More than one-third of Americans don’t understand what a tariff is, increasing to 50% of Gen Z, according to our recent research. When prices rise at the register, confusion can turn to frustration on social media and result in brand erosion. The charge for businesses is to, one, educate the public on tariffs and, two, communicate transparently about how tariffs will impact pricing. No vague statements or delayed responses. Companies need to act now so that when prices increase, they’ve established trust and taken control of the narrative. Tariffs are politically charged and personal for consumers. CEOs must lead the conversation. A one-time statement won’t suffice. Passing the buck to policymakers or pointing fingers overseas will not be a successful strategy. If businesses want to rebound with consumer trust intact, they must focus on transparency.”

Global view from an agency network and a pitch consultancy

John Mescall, creative chair, ByTheNetwork: “Aside from the economic suicide of wholesale punitive tariffs, the defining characteristic of the trade situation is unpredictability and chaos. It’s obvious there’s no coherent plan here. And we all know that uncertainty is the last thing you need for business and consumer confidence. From my perspective, this unpredictability and chaos is just further proof we’re living in a time of almost infinite swirl. And as a network of independent agencies, we need to double down on our strengths: flexibility, agility and creativity. Solving problems with creativity is our business. And the business world just got handed a problem for the ages.”

Marcus Brown, founder & CEO, The Great Pitch Company: “When US billionaires start talking about an ‘economic nuclear winter,’ it’s an understatement to say that ad markets all around the world are facing huge uncertainty. Those international pitches which have already started are likely to continue to their conclusion. However, we expect pitching activity (domestic or international) to slow as marketers around the world race to resolve other more pressing problems caused by interruptions to global supply chains, concerns over ‘dumping’ and the likely onset of a global recession. However, the unintended consequences of this ripping up of the trade book might well provide some exciting opportunities for a handful of markets, innovative companies and brave leaders. We’ve already been approached by savvy agencies asking for our help to convert existing must-win pitches, knowing that the number of pitches this year is likely to diminish considerably.”