Energy policy has been top of mind for the administration of President Donald Trump as it has sought to boost domestic oil and gas production at the expense of renewables.
While ostensibly good for domestic fossil fuel producers, it remains to be seen to what extent Trump’s tariff policy might undercut his pro-oil-and-gas executive orders by raising costs on materials for big fossil fuel projects.
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As the potential tug-of-war plays out, there will be winners and losers in the energy landscape, with the line drawn mainly between fossil fuel and renewable energy companies.
Still, it’s not a zero-sum game, and experts predict the energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward lower carbon solutions will continue, especially abroad.
— A rundown of energy executive orders.
— Executive orders versus tariffs.
— Long-term effects.
— Market forces at work.
— Winners and losers from Trump’s executive orders.
A Rundown of Energy Executive Orders
— Trump ordered a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, aiming to end financial commitments from the U.S. related to the international treaty on climate change.
— He rescinded a goal for half of U.S. auto sales to be electric vehicles (EV) by 2030, and he ordered an end to EV subsidies.
— He reversed a Biden-era moratorium on approvals for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to nations that don’t have free trade agreements with the U.S.
— The president issued his own moratorium — this one on offshore wind development.
— He declared a national energy emergency, aiming to expedite energy permitting and infrastructure after a study period.
— Trump ordered the halt of certain funds related to the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature climate law aimed at boosting America’s contribution to the energy transition.
— Trump also ordered support for pipeline and export infrastructure related to an Alaska LNG project and a reinstatement of federal approval for the Ambler Road access project, which will facilitate an Alaskan mining district rich in copper.
— Additionally, Trump ordered the support of domestic production and processing of rare earth minerals.
Executive Orders vs. Tariffs
Jean-Baptiste Wautier, who manages portfolio companies within the Wautier Family Office, says the executive orders are a double-edged sword for fossil fuel companies.
Some energy companies could see gains from deregulation canceled out by rising material costs and potential trade retaliation, he says.
“Deregulation helps oil and gas companies, but tariffs — especially on steel and aluminum — drive up costs for infrastructure-heavy energy firms, including those building pipelines or LNG terminals,” Wautier says. “Washington gives with one hand and takes with the other.”
On the other hand, the executive orders provide a certain amount of confidence for fossil fuel companies to make long-term decisions with results that may outlive some short-term supply chain challenges resulting from tariffs, says Adam Ferrari, CEO at Phoenix Capital Group, an oil and gas mineral rights investment firm.
Higher costs resulting from tariffs on imported steel and overseas-made components are preferable to uncertainty surrounding permitting for big projects, he says.
“The knowledge of quick permit approvals gives us the confidence to make investments while hiring more staff and expanding our operations,” Ferrari says. “The short-term expense rise from tariffs is preferable to project delays or cancellations that result from regulatory issues.”
Rita McGrath, Columbia University Business School professor, says tariffs are likely to benefit many American companies.
“Exxon and natural gas producers benefit from both the executive orders and likely tariffs, so that’s a double win for them,” she says. “Firms that produce energy-related products such as fertilizer may also be winners if they make foreign-generated products more expensive.”
However, it should be noted that major U.S. energy stocks saw declines in the wake of the president’s “reciprocal” tariffs announced on April 2, as crude oil prices dropped to their lowest levels in three years.
Long-Term Effects
Before getting into specific companies that stand to benefit or lose out under the Trump administration’s energy policies, it’s worth noting how the nation as a whole might fare.
Prioritizing fossil fuels over renewable energy creates competitive vulnerability as international markets increasingly favor sustainability, says George Carrillo, CEO at the Hispanic Construction Council.
“While countries like China and the E.U. heavily invest in renewable energy to dominate the growing clean energy market, the U.S. risks being left behind,” he says. “While fossil fuel deregulation may bring immediate benefits, sidelining renewables raises serious concerns about America’s competitiveness as global energy demand shifts toward clean and sustainable alternatives.”
McGrath notes that the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accords means other countries will be setting green energy standards, potentially putting American firms at a disadvantage.
“One thing we do know about new constraints, such as the need to figure out a transition in energy, is that they are likely to spark innovation,” she says. “If America doesn’t get involved, we will potentially be giving up the lead to companies from other countries.”
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Market Forces at Work
Trump’s executive orders aren’t coming in a vacuum. Instead, they exist within a complex global energy market where White House energy policy is just one part of the puzzle.
Investors have for years been urging oil and gas companies to use restraint in their exploration for and production of more hydrocarbons and instead prioritize returning money to investors through share buybacks and dividends. That serves as a check against oil and gas companies’ penchant for ramping up production too much during boom times and then suffering the consequences when oil and gas prices pull back.
Turning to LNG exports, Europe and Asia are the primary markets for U.S. exports of the super-chilled fuel, and there’s only so much that can go around until new facilities come online.
Exports were already expected to increase even before Trump took office because of the companies that had already been granted construction and export permits. Trump’s dismissal of the ban on new exports to non-free-trade-agreement countries expands the expected LNG demand.
Additionally, while Trump has broad authority over federal land, most oil and gas drilling happens on private or state lands that his executive orders don’t affect.
Winners and Losers From Trump’s Executive Orders
Winners
Domestic Oil and Gas Stocks
It appears that the biggest winners under Trump’s executive orders are domestic oil and gas exploration and production companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (ticker: XOM
), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and EOG Resources Inc. (EOG).
“Trump’s energy-related executive orders are a clear win for traditional energy producers,” Wautier says.
Pipeline companies such as Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) and Williams Cos. Inc. (WMB) also stand to benefit, Wautier says.
Liquefied Natural Gas Stocks
Within the energy sector, companies involved with LNG terminals, such as Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG), Sempra (SRE) and Energy Transfer LP (ET), are also set to benefit as Trump champions exports of the fuel and as Europe seeks to wean itself from Russian hydrocarbons after the invasion of Ukraine. Chevron, Exxon, Shell PLC (SHEL) and TotalEnergies SE (TTE) are also major LNG players.
“Global LNG demand is on track to rise 50% by 2040,” says Igor Isaev, head of the analytics center at Mind Money.
Rare Earth and Nuclear Energy Stocks
Trump’s executive order declaring a national energy emergency “will open the door for the safe and responsible mining and processing of critical minerals, including the uranium, rare earths and vanadium materials we produce at Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU),” the mining company stated on LinkedIn.
Other nuclear energy companies that could benefit include Cameco Corp. (CCJ), Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) and NuScale Power Corp. (SMR).
Losers
Renewable Energy Stocks
“Renewables and utilities focused on green transitions face headwinds,” Wautier says.
Companies like NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) and Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) now have to contend with clean energy incentives being deprioritized.
Specifically, companies involved in developing offshore wind farms in U.S. waters may find fewer growth opportunities because of Trump’s moratorium. Still, companies like Equinor ASA (EQNR) and Orsted A/S (OTC: DNNGY) have plenty of other development opportunities in Asia and Europe, as both areas are well ahead of the U.S. in offshore wind development.
Don’t Write Off Renewables Just Yet
Even though Trump’s executive orders de-prioritize solar and wind as energy sources, the renewables industry will hardly die given increased demand for clean energy from data centers and other sources.
“The global shift toward decarbonization is driven as much by markets as it is by politics,” Wautier says. “Over time, capital markets, international regulations and consumer demand will continue nudging the sector toward renewables — regardless of who’s in the White House.”
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Trump Executive Orders 2025: Energy Stock Winners and Losers originally appeared on usnews.com
Update 04/04/25: This story was published at an earlier date and has been updated with new information.
