The DLF share price is in focus. The stock is down 25% in 6 months and in 2025 alone, it is down over 15%. The Q3 earnings offered some encouragement but the question is, can you buy DLF now, especially considering the moderation expected on real estate rates going forward.
Here is a look at what top brokerages are advising at current levels-
HSBC On DLF: Expect 32% upside
HSBC maintains a Buy rating on DLF with a target price of Rs 920 per share. This implies around 32% upside from current levels and they believe that “DLF has valuable land bank in the National Capital Region market, a uniquely premium and distinguished image, and a strong balance sheet that will allow it to create value for all stakeholders.”
HSBC expects “DLF to deliver sales growth with strong margins and NCR remains one of the strongest markets with low inventory months, high development potential and price growth expectations.”
That said there are some risks that they anticipate. These include, “slowdown in the NCR market, slower launch approvals and a sharp increase construction costs,” added HSBC
Motilal Oswal on DLF: Reiterate Buy
Motilal Oswal reiterate Buy with a target price of Rs 954 per share. This implies upside of over 35% for the stock price. According to the brokerage house, DLF “management is focused on sustainable and profitable growth, guided by a strong launch pipeline and underdevelopment annuity assets, along with a strategically located land bank.”
However, Motilal Oswal clarified that, “we have not considered the incremental potential for our calculations due to the revised TOD/TDR potential.” They are banking on DLF’s strong portfolio of luxury residential projects that have received an extraordinary response at launches. According to them, “Gurugram is emerging as a destination for uber-luxury residences, where DLF has an absolute monopoly. With pre-sales expected to clock a 20% CAGR over FY24-27, coupled with healthy collections visibility, a large land bank to support long-term growth, a cash positive balance sheet, steadily growing rental income, and reducing debt, our confidence in DLF remains strong.”
Nuvama on DLF: Lowers price target by 10%
Nuvama too maintains a Buy on DLF but has lowered the price target to Rs 927 a share from the earlier Rs 1,040 per share. Despite the 10% cut in share price, DLF share price is still poised to go up by over 30% in next 12 months as per Nuvama estimates. This is because, “Strong balance sheet is about to get stronger: While DLF will maintain its leadership position in margins/cash flow generation, we expect housing sales trajectory and price increase to moderate for real estate developers as affordability becomes an issue.”
This is the key reason they have lowered the target price.
Nomura On DLF: Neutral rating
Nomura has a neutral recommendation on the stock with a significantly lesser price target of Rs 700 per share. According to them, “overall, there are no surprises with management maintaining its FY26E pre-sales target of roughly Rs 20,000 crore plus (vs our estimate of Rs 23,000 crore and its FY25 presales of Rs 20,000 crore).” According to them, despite the “medium-term launch pipeline target of Rs 74,000 crore; and cumulative annuity income CAGR of 15% until 2030, investors may have been slightly disappointed by management’s conservative pre-sales guidance for FY26.”
While they acknowledge DLF’s robust cash generation and strong annuity income profile, “we believe its current valuation already prices in the long-term growth potential.”