Uzbekistan hopes to finalize its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2026, bringing to a close a 31-year effort that envisions an open, competitive, and resilient economy.
Following the WTO’s General Council meeting on February 18-19, Uzbekistan’s chief WTO negotiator Azizbek Urunov said that the WTO’s director general had “kindly proposed to focus on Uzbekistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Ethiopia’s accessions as a target for” the 14th Ministerial Conference scheduled to take place in Cameroon in March 2026.
Neighboring Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan – became WTO members long ago. Kyrgyzstan was the first to gain membership, not only in Central Asia but also among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), joining in 1998. Remarkably, Bishkek completed the accession process in just two years after its initial application.
Although Uzbekistan applied for WTO membership in 1994, its bid was suspended in 2005 before being revived in 2020.
In 2023, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced the country’s plan to double the volume of goods exports by 2026 and called accession to the WTO “the only way” to achieve this goal. Serious efforts to accelerate the accession process began with the appointment in 2023 of Urunov as special representative of the president of Uzbekistan on WTO issues.
Tashkent has aimed to finalize the accession process by 2026, a deadline that looms just a year away.
In December 2024, Mirziyoyev said that the country was entering “the final stage” of this process and called the accession “a thoughtful and far-sighted choice, and an integral part of the reforms.”
If Tashkent succeeds in its efforts, Uzbekistan will become the ninth CIS country to join the organization.
Uzbekistan has been moving toward economic liberalization by aligning its tariffs and duties with WTO standards, signaling a move away from protectionism. As of January 2025, for example, a number of companies operating in the fields of metallurgy, chemistry, energy and telecommunications lost their special rights. Starting in July 2026, UzGasTrade will no longer have exclusive rights as the sole operator for natural gas exports and imports. Similarly, Uzenergosotish, established in 2023 to manage the centralized purchase and sale of electricity within Uzbekistan, will lose its monopoly on the electricity trade.
“From now on, no one will have exclusive rights – whether it is a state-owned strategic enterprise, a private company, or a foreign investor. Everyone in the economy must operate under equal conditions,” said Mirziyoyev in a 2024 meeting with local entrepreneurs, emphasizing the importance of joining the WTO.
Saida Mirziyoyeva, the president’s daughter and first assistant, has overseen the interdepartmental commission working with the WTO and the negotiating group responsible for the WTO accession. In January, she noted in a Telegram post that 20 pieces of legislation had been passed to enhance the transparency of business practices and competition.
WTO membership will arguably open doors for Uzbekistan’s economy, facilitating increased trade, attracting foreign investment and technological know-how, and enhancing productivity.
“All WTO members have the right to conduct bilateral negotiations with any country that joins the organization. However, in practice, not everyone does this,” Urunov explained last year as Uzbekistan signed market access protocols with Japan, Israel, and the Dominican Republic and finalized negotiations with Thailand, as an outcome of the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference held in Abu Dhabi.
“The number of countries interested in bilateral trade depends on the economy of the country that joined the WTO and its trade relations with other member states. For example, African countries have almost no trade relations with Uzbekistan and are not showing much interest,” he said.
From a theoretical perspective, Uzbekistan’s transition toward economic liberalization is expected to lead to a sharp increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), a greater variety of goods with a higher share of high-quality products and services, stronger competition, as well as a short-term increase in market supply, expanding consumer choices.
While economic theory suggests that WTO accession should lead to a surge in FDI, the reality can be quite different. FDI inflow velocity is likely to be moderate in the medium term, which means that a healthy competitive environment and an increased share of high-quality goods and services will depend heavily on the actual volume of investments. Several factors contribute to this cautious outlook. Many investors remain hesitant about Central Asia due to economic and non-economic risks, like corruption. Despite the fact that Uzbekistan has improved in many rankings over the last few years, progress is not guaranteed to be linear into the future and by some metrics, Uzbekistan has experienced a backslide. This may influence an investor’s decision to invest in the country.
Investors, whether individuals or companies, allocate available funds to promising projects. With multiple opportunities across different countries, they naturally prioritize those that are more profitable, sustainable, and low-risk in the long run.
In addition to market analysis, due diligence plays a crucial role, as investors must assess financial and operational risks before acquiring business stakes. Another challenge is talent acquisition, as securing qualified professionals remains a key concern for foreign companies. Finally, large-scale investments often require top-level approvals within investor organizations, adding another layer of complexity to Uzbekistan’s investment climate.
These hurdles suggest that while WTO accession may open new economic opportunities, the anticipated transformation may take longer than expected to eventuate.
New business incorporation via FDI typically takes one to three years.
As Uzbekistan enters the final stretch toward WTO accession, local manufacturers face a final opportunity to improve their standing before the world comes to compete in Uzbekistan. Local companies will need to build consumer trust by improving the quality of their products and services. Otherwise, they risk losing their market position to more experienced foreign companies and investors that offer superior products.
It is expected that major international firms will implement various pricing strategies when entering the Uzbek market. Some may use penetration pricing – that is, the setting of low prices initially to quickly gain market share – while others may opt for perceived quality pricing – setting high prices to create a premium brand image. Price discrimination could also be applied, with different prices set for the same product in different markets, such as peak versus off-peak rail fares. Additionally, companies may use going rate pricing by aligning their prices with competitors, or price skimming, where a new product is introduced at a high price before gradually decreasing. Captive product pricing is another possible approach, requiring customers to purchase two related products together, such as printers and ink cartridges.
Alongside these methods, other pricing techniques will likely be employed as foreign businesses seek to gain a competitive foothold in Uzbekistan’s evolving market.
While Uzbekistan’s WTO accession will introduce a greater variety of goods at competitive prices to local consumers, it will also give foreign markets easier access to Uzbek products, particularly agricultural goods. This increased demand could drive up food prices for local consumers. However, the government has policy tools to protect domestic interests. For instance, when potato prices surged in Kazakhstan due to high external demand, the government imposed a six-month export ban, clarifying that “this measure does not apply to EAEU member states, although exports in this direction will be monitored.”
In the long run, WTO accession is expected to have a positive impact on the country’s trade balance as well as other positive outcomes.
For example, joining the WTO may lead to a reduction in Uzbekistan’s unemployment rate. According to official figures, 5.8 percent of Uzbekistan’s working-age population is unemployed. Currently, almost 15 million of Uzbekistan’s 37.5 million people are considered employed, with 48 percent working in the formal sector, 38 percent in the informal sector, and the remaining 13 percent or 1.9 million working abroad as part of labor migration.
Uzbekistan’s large and growing population will provide foreign investors with a ready, relatively cheap, workforce. Hundreds of thousands of people enter the job market each year in Uzbekistan. And then there are the nearly 2 million who are engaged in labor migration who could arguably be attracted back to Uzbekistan for jobs at home. In addition, Uzbekistan’s growing consumer market of over 37.5 million people, with an average age of 29, makes the country an attractive investment destination.
Since Uzbekistan is a double landlocked country, it will be more beneficial for investors to establish factories and plants within Uzbekistan to reduce logistics costs, rather than exporting these goods into the country. By doing so, they would reduce logistics expenses, import duties, and other costs. Moreover, opening a factory means hiring local workers, which in turn helps lower the unemployment rate.
However, the creation of new positions does not necessarily translate to local workers filling them, as a shortage of specialists might result in many local employees occupying junior or, at best, mid-level positions, with senior roles being taken by foreigners.
Harmonization trade tariffs among WTO members will allow small businesses in Uzbekistan to benefit from imports and exports in the short run, potentially enhancing the prosperity of local producers. However, failing to invest in improving product or service quality could lead to the demise of these business structures in the longer term. Companies that are able to survive in a competitive market will expand, while those that are not able to will fail.
Market saturation will be accompanied by an increase in supply, and the market will strive to establish more democratic prices for products. However, a decline in the profitability rate of small business entities will hinder their ability to quickly reinvest funds into business expansion.
The share of exports is expected to exceed current levels. An increase in exports will contribute to the strengthening of the local currency, leading to its revaluation, which is unfavorable for exporters but beneficial for importers.
With all these risks and potential benefits, Uzbekistan’s WTO accession could be a turning point in building a stronger economy. Decades of protectionist policies that once helped local companies thrive are now being dismantled, leaving some businesses not only skeptical about the benefits of WTO membership but also frustrated over losing their special privileges. However, if Uzbekistan successfully implements key reforms and attracts strategic investments, its 31-year effort to join the WTO may finally pay off — paving the way for a more open, competitive, and resilient economy.
