RECAP: Most Asian markets edged up on Friday after days of volatility in the tech world caused by the DeepSeek AI breakthrough, while sentiment was dampened by US President Donald Trump confirming hefty tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Thai shares continued to consolidate, falling 1.6% on Friday to finish near 1,300 points, pressured by rising competition in global tech and AI as well as uncertainties about US tariffs.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,310.72 and 1,354.74 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,314.50, down 2.9% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 42.26 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 1.53 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 908.21 million and foreign investors at 328.72 million. Institutional investors were net sellers of 2.76 billion baht.
NEWSMAKERS: The US economy expanded at an annualised 2.3% in the fourth quarter of last year, slower than the consensus forecast of 2.6% and the 3.1% increase in the third quarter. GDP rose 5.3% for all of 2024 before adjusting for inflation, according to data released Thursday.
- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted unanimously to keep its benchmark lending rate at between 4.25% and 4.50%, with chairman Jerome Powell saying the bank is in no hurry to adjust rates again.
- US consumer spending, which comprises the largest share of economic activity, grew by 4.2% from a year earlier -- the first time since late 2021 that outlays have exceeded 3% in consecutive quarters.
- The European Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter point on Thursday, for the fifth consecutive time, to 2.75% as inflation remained close to its 2% target. Economic growth in the euro zone remains weak, at just 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- Gold prices hit a record high yesterday, with the spot price creeping above $2,800 an ounce, as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal due to heightened US tariff concerns.
- The Bank of Japan will likely raise interest rates again around June or July, and seek to triple its policy rate to at least 1.5% in the next two years, former board member Makoto Sakurai said.
- Boeing on Tuesday reported an annual loss of $11.83 billion, its largest since 2020, as it grappled with problems at its commercial and defence units and the fallout from a strike by US West Coast factory workers.
- President Trump said Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok, adding that he would like to see a bidding war for the popular video app that has 170 million users in the US.
- Toyota Motor sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024, a 3.7% drop from the previous year, but it remains the world's biggest carmaker for a fifth consecutive year. Second-ranked Volkswagen Group reported a 2.3% decline in sales to just over 9 million. BYD of China sold 4.3 million cars, including 1.8 million EVs, a 41% jump from 2023.
- Tesla reported a profit of $2.3 billion for the last three months of 2024, a sharp decline from $7.9 billion a year earlier, when a one-time tax benefit was included. Sales rose 2% to $25.7 billion.
- Nissan and Honda both saw global sales decrease in 2024, underscoring the need for the pair to merge. Honda's sales fell 4.6% to 3.8 million units, as production fell 11% to 3.7 million. Nissan sales slid 0.8% to 3.3 million, while output declined 8.7% to 3.1 million.
- General Motors expects to save up to $1 billion annually by ending its Cruise robotaxi programme. It reported a $2.9-billion loss for the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by charges related to ending robotaxi development and restructuring China operations.
- The US is considering curbing or banning the sale of Nvidia H20 chips to China, as a response to the surprising advances of AI in China, notably DeepSeek-V3 and Qwen 2.5-Max (Alibaba) with much lower cost but performance on par with US AI models.
- SoftBank of Japan is in talks to invest $15-25 billion in OpenAI in a deal that would make it the biggest financial backer of the ChatGPT-maker, the Financial Times reported.
- Industrial profits at large Chinese companies declined 3.3% last year after a 2.3% decrease in 2023. A surge of 11% in December helped narrow the full-year contraction.
- The Philippine economy grew more slowly than expected in the fourth quarter of 2024 at 5.2%, reflecting sluggish investment, consumption and farm output.
- TikTok will invest 127 billion baht in Thailand in a data centre to support activities of companies affiliated with the globally popular video site, the Board of Investment said on Wednesday.
- The founding family of Seven & i Holdings, the owner of 7-Eleven globally, is asking Thailand's Charoen Pokphand Group to invest in a management buyout of the Japanese retailing giant, NHK reported. The investment would be in the order of hundreds of billions of yen.
- The Fiscal Policy Office forecasts 2025 GDP growth of up to 3.5%, with a range of 2.5% to 3.5% and average median growth of 3%. Growth will be supported by private consumption, exports, tourism and public-private investment, it said.
- The Bank of Thailand is tightening rules for financial transactions to curb the use of mule accounts by fraudsters, with stricter measures to include digital assets and e-wallets in the next phase.
- The government confirmed on Tuesday that the Bangkok-Nong Khai high-speed rail project, connecting to Laos and onward to China's high-speed rail network, will be operational by 2030.
- New housing project launches in Bangkok fell 19% last year as prices surged and developers focused more on building expensive properties, according to Agency for Real Estate Affairs.
- Thailand's domestic automobile sales slumped 26% to 572,675 units last year, a 15-year low, the Federation of Thai Industries said on Tuesday. Sales dropped 21% in December from a year earlier to 54,016 units.
- An extended EV price war in Thailand will be triggered by a surge in local production from Chinese carmakers, said Suroj Sangsnit, president of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand. He forecast sales to jump 40% this year, exceeding 100,000 units and reversing an 8% drop last year.
- Thailand's manufacturing production index dropped by a more than expected 2.1% in December from a year earlier, due to a slump in the automotive industry and weak consumption, the Ministry of Industry said.
- The Ministry of Finance expects a 300-billion-baht infrastructure fund to begin operating this year, slated to support a 20-baht flat rate for all Bangkok electric rail lines. The fund will be used to purchase only privately invested assets.
- The Ministry of Finance is preparing to issue a stablecoin backed by government bonds, promoting retail investor access, as proposed by former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. The initial value is set at 10 billion baht.
- The cabinet approved a draft decree that will increase penalties against online crime, requiring mobile operators and banks to share responsibility. The decree is expected to be enforced in February.
- The Ministry of Finance expects the 30-billion-baht second phase of the digital handout programme will boost GDP by 0.1%. The 160-billion-baht third phase will take place within the second quarter.
- The "We Travel Together" tourism stimulus programme, starting in June, will be open to 1 million participants. This sixth phase may only involve a change in the app name, while maintaining similar conditions as before.
- Advanced Info Service has launched the HoverAir X1 Pro Max foldable drone, its first foray into selling drone products in a bid to boost revenue for its retail network.
COMING UP: On Monday the euro zone reports monthly inflation and the US updates manufacturing PMI. Tuesday brings a US job openings update and crude oil inventory figures, and Chinese services PMI. On Wednesday, the US releases trade data and non-manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, the Bank of England announces an interest rate decision while the US releases initial jobless claims. On Friday, the US releases monthly non-farm payrolls, while China reports consumer and producer prices.
- Locally, Chulalongkorn University on Monday holds the Chula Thailand Presidents Summit 2025 economic forum. The Office of Insurance Commission will discuss its 2025 operational plan, and Tisco Asset Management will discuss investment trends.
STOCKS TO WATCH: InnovestX Securities sees the SET index moving sideways in the short term. In the absence of new catalysts, the market has declined significantly and underperformed global markets. Stocks recommend are BBL with a target price of 180 baht, BEM (10.50 baht) and BTG (23 baht).
- Finansia Syrus Securities says the current low valuation of the Thai stock market offers a rare long-term investment opportunity. It recommends domestic plays to mitigate risks from global uncertainties, focusing on stocks expected to show strong profit growth while maintaining attractive valuations. Top picks for 2025 are BA, BBL, CHG, CPALL, MTC, NSL, RBF, SEAFCO, SHR and WHA.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,290 points and resistance at 1,360. Finansia Syrus Securities sees support at 1,300 and resistance at 1,330.
