HURRICANE

Tropics watch: Chances increasing for Invest 94L to become tropical depression

Cheryl McCloud
Palm Beach Post

In less than 24 hours, the Atlantic basin has gone from nothing but a couple of tropical waves to a system that may become a tropical depression by early next week.

And chances continue to improve for the system to strengthen.

Invest 94L, which is a tropical wave right now, is showing greater potential for development as it makes its way across the Atlantic, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The system is still a long way from the United States and faces several problems, including dry air and dust. It's also so far south it may run into South America.

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However, it could find a more moist atmosphere with less dust and wind shear around the Caribbean, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

Even if conditions become more favorable for development, there is no guarantee a depression or tropical system will take shape, although the Hurricane Center currently is projecting a 60% chance for development over the next five days.

There have been no named storms in the Atlantic since Alex dissipated on June 6. The next storm will be Bonnie.

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The Hurricane Center also is monitoring two other tropical storms in the Atlantic basin, including one in the western Caribbean.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of  8 a.m. June 24:  

What's out there and where are they?

Invest 94L is a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic southwest of Cape Verde. It's producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Other tropical waves

  • Another tropical wave in the central Atlantic is located east of the Windward Islands. It's moving to the west.
  • A third tropical wave in the western Caribbean is located northeast of Honduras and stretches across Panama into the Pacific Ocean. It's moving to the west.

How likely are they to strengthen? 

Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week as it moves west at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20%.
  • Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 60%.

Who is likely to be impacted? 

It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from Invest 94L as it moves toward the Caribbean.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

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Weather watches and warnings issued for your area

The next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next? 

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