This is Part 3 of our college football preview analyzing every Power Five program’s prospects for the next 10 years. Today’s focus is the Big 12. Monday was the Pac-12, Tuesday was the Big Ten, Thursday will be the ACC, and Friday will be the SEC.
It’s a dangerous thing to try to guess team trajectories a decade out. Just take the Big 12, circa 2010.
Did anyone then think Texas, fresh off a national title game appearance to cap a run of nine consecutive 10-win seasons, would be almost annually overrated and largely irrelevant in the Teens? That perennial doormat Baylor would average 8.3 victories — more than Texas(!) — and produce a Heisman winner?
Or maybe that West Virginia would land in the conference? Or that the difference between Mike Leach and no Mike Leach at Texas Tech would come out to 2.5 wins a year? (On second thought, forget that last question. The Red Raiders won 62 games in the 1990s, 85 in 10 years under Leach and 60 in the 10 years since he left).
For all the on-field wackiness since 2010, maybe the most amazing thing about the Big 12 is that it still exists, even if its moniker rings false at this point. Oklahoma has done its part to carry the league’s banner, and there’s no quibbling with what Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian and even Kansas State accomplished in the teens.
But much like the ACC really needs a strong Clemson and Florida State, the Big 12 could really use Texas as a potent counterpoint to Oklahoma atop the conference. And that leads to the safest prediction of all at the start of the 2020s: Whatever way the decade plays out in the Big 12, a good chunk of it will be viewed through the burnt orange portion of the prism.
As a reminder, this series attempts to forecast the 2020s while using the past two decades as guideposts. And unlike the Pac-12 and the Big Ten, the Big 12 will start piling up results this fall. The predictions mix the current state of programs with their built-in advantages and disadvantages (available resources, access to talent, institutional commitment). It’s hard to figure out how the pandemic will influence the course of programs and impossible to know who will make a brilliant coaching hire or elevate their recruiting in the next 10 years — and who might go in the opposite direction.
Note: *Not a Big 12 member for part or all of the decade
Baylor
2000s: 34-82 (11-69)
2010s: 83-47 (52-37)
2020s prediction: In between
An easy call. The Bears aren’t going back to their pre-Robert Griffin III irrelevance anytime soon. And their rapid turnaround from the abrupt and sordid end of the Art Briles era demonstrates both an internal commitment to the sport and the ability to attract coaching candidates who can get the job done. Matt Rhule went 1-11, 7-6 and then 11-3 before bouncing to the NFL, and first-time head coach Dave Aranda was hired to replace him. It’s going to be hard for Baylor to post five 10-win seasons in a second consecutive decade, but being a steady midpack Big 12 team with an occasional conference title game appearance isn’t a reach.
Iowa State
2000s: 55-68 (27-53)
2010s: 51-74 (31-58)
2020s prediction: Best of the 21st century
The Cyclones start off in decent shape, with a well-regarded young coach (Matt Campbell) and a defensive identity that has grown stronger over the past three years. The longer Campbell sticks around Ames, the better. Not only does he give Iowa State the chance to build on a 23-16 mark over the past three years, he also improves the program’s chances of not tumbling into a ditch. Since 2003, Iowa State has three 2-10 seasons and three more 3-9s. Avoiding those severe dips alone would make averaging 5.5 wins a season far more realistic.
Kansas
2000s: 57-63 (26-54)
2010s: 21-99 (6-83)
2020s prediction: In between
The Jayhawks can’t possibly be as bad as they have been for the past 10 years, right? The early returns under Les Miles last fall suggested some progress, with competitive losses to Iowa State and West Virginia and a last-second setback against Texas. At the same time, it requires a leap to imagine Kansas flitting about with .500 over the next decade-long span. It’s still a gargantuan hole the Jayhawks find themselves in after the teens.
Kansas State
2000s: 71-54 (38-42)
2010s: 81-48 (52-37)
2020s prediction: In between
The toughest team in the Big 12 to size up is the Wildcats, who churned out solid year after solid year in the last half-decade of Bill Snyder’s second tenure, then went 8-5 in the debut season of successor Chris Klieman, whose record at Football Championship Subdivision power North Dakota State earned him a promotion to Manhattan. Kansas State doesn’t have an abundance of nearby high school talent (though there are plenty of junior colleges in the state). Access to talent didn’t stop Snyder from becoming the first coach to post a career winning record with the Wildcats since the Great Depression. Klieman isn’t going to pick off Oklahoma every year like he did in 2019, but it’s possible to average seven or eight victories at Kansas State. It just isn’t automatic.
Oklahoma
2000s: 110-24 (67-13)
2010s: 109-25 (73-16)
2020s prediction: Best of the 21st century
The real answer, frankly, is “about the same as the past 20 years.” Oklahoma has gone 10-2 or better in the regular season in seven of the past eight seasons, and the return of the Big 12 title game a few years ago has added an opportunity for the Sooners to pad their victory total each season. It helps to ace the transition from a Hall of Fame coach (Bob Stoops) to his successor, and Lincoln Riley (36-6 in three seasons with three Big 12 titles and three playoff berths) has done just that. Oklahoma probably won’t have a Heisman finalist playing quarterback every year under Riley, but it remains well equipped to maintain a gap between itself and the rest of the conference.
Oklahoma State
2000s: 67-56 (36-44)
2010s: 93-37 (58-31)
2020s prediction: In between
These are the good old days in Stillwater. Well, maybe not the past two seasons (combined record: 15-11), but the Cowboys rang up six 10-win seasons in the eight years before that. Credit a greater commitment to the sport (the late T. Boone Pickens had something to do with that) and an ability to exploit Texas’s decline to become the Big 12’s second-most consistent program for getting Oklahoma State to this point. The Cowboys shouldn’t slip too much, but matching their output from the teens won’t be easy.
Texas
2000s: 110-19 (68-12)
2010s: 71-57 (47-42)
2020s prediction: In between
The knee-jerk reaction is to say there’s no way the Longhorns will repeat their decade in the wilderness again. Then again, Texas won 73 games in the 1980s and 74 in the 1990s, so there’s an argument the Mack Brown glory years are the real outlier. But there’s just too much access to talent, too much institutional investment, too much going for the Longhorns to think they will ring up four losing seasons and barely win seven games a year over a 10-year span again. Right?
Texas Christian
2000s: 95-29 (60-19)*
2010s: 87-42 (54-33)*
2020s prediction: Worst of the 21st century
Two things to ask here. One, how long will 60-year-old program architect Gary Patterson keep at it? And two, is 63-40 (39-33) a better comparison moving forward than 87-42 (54-33)? The former figure removes the Horned Frogs’ last two seasons in the Mountain West from their 2010s total. That makes TCU an eight-win-a-year team in the Big 12, a funny spot for it to land because there have been all-or-average outcomes of late in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs have three seasons of 11 victories but no others of more than seven since switching conferences. As impressive as it has been for TCU to maintain its defensive identity in an offense-happy conference, at least a slight dip in overall wins seems probable.
Texas Tech
2000s: 85-43 (47-33)
2010s: 60-65 (30-59)
2020s prediction: Worst of the 21st century
The Red Raiders have endured four consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1979-85 and haven’t won nine games in a season since 2009. The thought of matching the output of Mike Leach’s heyday in the aughts is far-fetched. But even averaging six victories and making a bowl game half the time is going to require Texas Tech to play some semblance of defense. Maybe second-year coach Matt Wells is the guy to make that happen.
West Virginia
2000s: 86-39 (47-22)*
2010s: 75-52 (46-40)*
2020s prediction: Worst of the 21st century, barely
The Mountaineers have averaged seven wins a season since they joined the Big 12 and are an even 36-36 in conference play in their new home. They have gone 7-6 three times and 8-5 twice in the past eight years, with a 4-8, a 10-3 (2016) and last year’s 5-7 thrown in. The conference’s massive geographic outlier isn’t a threat to become uncompetitive — it is 34-22 against everyone in the Big 12 besides the Oklahoma schools since 2012 — but delivering more 7-6s and 8-5s than anything else sounds about right.
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